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The Testosterone Trap: Raising the Number Is Not the Same as Fixing the Night

Aug 3, 202610 min read
ScienceEnduranceMindset

Somehow, something changed regarding male health in America this summer, and most men only noticed the advertising.

On June 18, the Department of Health and Human Services petitioned the FDA to change the label on all testosterone-containing medications on sale in the country. On July 15, the Department of War made testosterone testing a mandatory component of annual health check-up for every service member aged thirty and over. Two weeks later, Epic Research published data on prescribing of testosterone products involving 109 million American men showing that testosterone use had climbed back past its 2013 peak.

Three institutions. Six weeks. One trend.

If you happen to be one of those men who measures his resting heart rate, analyses his own lab work, and sees himself as the system to be tuned up, you may think of it as good news. There is one more number you could measure now. There is one more number you can change now. At long last, some authority figure officially said that the number matters.

The thing that is not mentioned by advertising is the research question they aimed to find the answer to.

Those trials that have paved the way to the current situation were done with a safety issue in mind. Do testosterone therapies harm your heart? They did not ask whether it repairs your night. When researchers were trying to find an answer to this last question, they stumbled upon something no advertisement would ever mention again.

Testosterone moves desire. It barely moves erections. And the thing that most often fails in the moment that counts is neither one.

The Gate Opened on a Question About Hearts

In 2015 the FDA put a statement on every testosterone label saying that safety and effectiveness of testosterone treatment have not been established in men with age-related low testosterone. This was done since the benefits were not proven sufficiently and doubts about cardiovascular risks had emerged.

Then came TRAVERSE. Randomized, placebo-controlled study with more than 5,200 men found no meaningful increase in major adverse cardiovascular events, including myocardial infarction and stroke in men receiving testosterone therapy. In June the FDA concluded that the 2015 restriction was no longer necessary and requested its removal. This request also restricts contraindication for prostate cancer to the metastatic form only and downgrades warning for enlarged prostate.

This is an impressive array of data and the regulatory action is reasonable. But let us examine which data exactly were analyzed here.

TRAVERSE included men aged 45 to 80 years old with either existing cardiovascular disease or high risk of its development and two fasting testosterone readings below 300. Its primary outcome was cardiac events. This was a safety trial that addressed a safety question and provided its answer properly.

Answering a safety question does not answer the performance question. "This is likely not to hurt your heart" and "this will solve problems you are having in bed" are two different statements. The label change corresponds to the former and the market sells the latter.

What an Open Gate Does to a Sales Floor

In 2022, an experiment performed by researchers from Northwestern University became relevant enough to mention. A urologist named Justin Dubin became the patient. He approached seven direct-to-consumer testosterone platforms, which operated across all fifty states and pretended to be a 34-year-old man, with symptoms of lack of energy and decreased libido, planning to have kids someday.

Total testosterone level was normal. Free testosterone level was normal.

85.7 percent of these platforms offered testosterone therapy to this hypothetical patient regardless of his condition.

Only one of those seven platforms asked whether the patient had any cardiovascular event in the recent past or whether he planned to have children someday. Six of the seven had no testosterone threshold at all for starting treatment. Half quoted him a target above 1,000 nanograms per deciliter while the stated normal range was between 264 and 916. And 83.3 percent never raised polycythemia, the thickening of the blood that testosterone can produce.

The most important point is the one about having children. This part of the script was not there just as an ornament. Exogenous testosterone makes the body stop producing endogenous testosterone, and testosterone produced by the body is necessary for spermatogenesis. The Northwestern authors listed infertility as a specific side effect of testosterone prescription for men not meeting the criteria. If a man openly declares his plans regarding having kids in the future, the discussion on risk and benefit becomes different. Six out of seven platforms did not have that discussion.

That study is four years old. Since then, the gate got wider rather than narrower.

Prescription curve explains what happened after that. On the background of 109 million men who had some kind of healthcare encounter, the share of those men holding an active testosterone prescription dropped from 0.83 percent in 2013 to 0.64 percent in 2021. Then this number rose to 0.93 percent in 2025 and reached 0.95 percent in the first half of 2026. Now every single age group above thirty is above its early-2010s peak. Among men aged 50 to 64, the figure reached 1.57 percent.

Millions of men answer a question now. This question is whether someone even thought about the question they are asking.

What Happened When Researchers Asked About Sex

T4DM recruited 1,007 men and randomized them to testosterone or placebo treatments. In the secondary analyses, 792 of them completed all the measurements on the International Index of Erectile Function, which is used as the standard instrument in this field.

The first result should ring alarm bells.

Scores for sexual function at the baseline correlated with age. They correlated with waist circumference. They did not correlate with serum testosterone at all.

In a sample of a thousand men, how well things worked bore no relationship to the number on the lab report.

Testosterone treatment improved the scores, in all five domains, the largest increase was observed in the category of sexual desire and older men. Then the researchers asked a more difficult question: in how many men was this improvement sufficient to indicate the change in their everyday life?

Erectile function: 3 percent. Sexual desire: 10 percent.

The Testosterone Trials found the same pattern in a reverse order. 790 men, aged 65 or over, in every one of them the level of testosterone was below 275, randomized to either testosterone gel or placebo, were followed for one year. Their sexual activity increased. Their sexual desire increased. Erectile function increased.

Then a follow-up analysis of the sexual function participants assessed the distribution of these gains. It mapped the level of hormone rise in each individual against his progress. The hormone tracked activity and desire. It did not track erections.

There was no threshold. No level was established below which men respond to treatment and above which they do not. None of 27 baseline characteristics predicted who would improve.

There is no number that tells you it will work for you. The trials tried to find one but did not succeed.

Erections Are a Plumbing Problem Wearing a Hormone Costume

Why does the hormone correlate with desire, but not with erections? Because they are two different machines.

Desire is a condition of the brain, and testosterone is an input into it. An erection is a hydraulic event. In the corpus cavernosum, smooth muscle relaxes, arterial inflow increases, and venous outflow becomes mechanically obstructed. There is no forcing of blood. It flows where something released it. And that is why trying to force one works against you, and that is why the T4DM authors described erectile function as a neurovascular function, weakly associated with serum testosterone and strongly associated with cardiometabolic and vascular disease.

This allows one to compare what the advertisement will never do.

Within the same body of literature, losing 10 percent or more of body weight had a beneficial effect on erectile function of roughly 1.5 to 3.4 points on that scale. A meta-analysis from 2017 of 14 randomized trials in 2,298 men showed that testosterone therapy improved erectile function by 2.31 points compared to placebo.

The same measure. The same range. One comes by prescription.

This meta-analysis is the honest counterweight to everything mentioned above, and it needs to be said openly. The effect was roughly twice as large in men with severe deficiency of testosterone compared to those with mild deficiency. Also, the effect was lower when diabetes or obesity were present. For the man with genuine hypogonadism, testosterone therapy is actual medication, and it actually works. That is the exact person those guidelines were written for. He is also, increasingly, outnumbered on the intake form.

The Paradox Sitting in the Lab Report

It is men who are the best at everything else who are particularly susceptible to this. This is the Apex Predator Paradox running on schedule. The instinct to find the metric, move the metric, win is the same instinct that created the career. Applied to intimacy, it seeks out the dial.

There is an inherent category error hidden within this instinct.

The dial is a real thing. It is measurable, and it truly means something. It is connected to whether you want to. It is only faintly connected to whether your body cooperates once you do. Optimizing for the former while expecting the latter is precisely the mistake that only a competent man could make, since it takes discipline to properly carry it out.

A hormone is a background condition. It shifts over months, while what goes wrong in the bedroom happens in seconds and goes wrong due to state, not supply. Your nervous system identifies the situation as a test and runs the wrong program. Testosterone is a condition of the system, not a lever you pull at nine at night.

You can raise the background and still lose the moment. This is the same trap men walk into with any drug that changes the chassis and the state but never touches the command system. The chassis matters. It is not where the failure is happening.

What This Briefing Will Not Hand You

No dose. No target number. No threshold to aim at. The trials looked for this but were unsuccessful in their search, thus there is nothing here that can be passed.

There is something that can be passed and this is an order of operations. Before you buy a lever, identify the machine you are going to pull.

If your energy is genuinely gone and desire has genuinely flattened, and the symptoms are real and persistent, that belongs in front of a physician who works in this area: a urologist, an endocrinologist, or your primary care doctor. Not an intake form. The American Urological Association recommends against routine screening for low testosterone in the general male population, and a single low reading is not a diagnosis. Levels move across a day and across a season.

And if the failure does not stem from desire but instead from what occurs within the act, testosterone was never the file that problem lives in. The chassis gets built at night and it is worth building. The moment gets won somewhere else entirely.

There is a difference between a country that decides it requires more testosterone and a country that learns what testosterone does. The number went up. The question stayed open.

Sources
  • Bartelt K, Cox C. After Nearly a Decade-Long Decrease, Testosterone Prescribing Rates Rising Again. Epic Research, July 29, 2026
  • U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. HHS Announces Requested Updates to Testosterone Therapy Product Labels. Press release, June 18, 2026
  • Secretary of War. Health and Human Performance Optimization to Enhance Military Readiness. Memorandum, July 15, 2026
  • Dubin JM, Jesse E, Fantus RJ, et al. Guideline-Discordant Care Among Direct-to-Consumer Testosterone Therapy Platforms. JAMA Internal Medicine 2022;182(12):1321-1323
  • Testosterone Treatment and Sexual Function in Men: Secondary Analysis of the T4DM Trial. Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism 2025;110(7):e2157
  • Snyder PJ, Bhasin S, Cunningham GR, et al. Effects of Testosterone Treatment in Older Men. New England Journal of Medicine 2016;374(7):611-624
  • Testosterone Treatment and Sexual Function in Older Men With Low Testosterone Levels (TTrials Sexual Function Trial follow-up analysis). Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism 2016, PMID 27355400
  • Corona G, et al. Meta-analysis of Results of Testosterone Therapy on Sexual Function Based on International Index of Erectile Function Scores. European Urology 2017, PMID 28434676
From the Author

I wrote Chapter 1 around a single observation: the men who are best at optimizing everything are the men most likely to reach for a dial that does not control the thing they are trying to fix. The Apex Predator Paradox is what happens when a career-winning instinct walks into a room it was never built for. This post is one frame of that pattern, drawn from a summer of news. The book takes apart what the moment actually runs on.

Also available: Hardcover $25.99 · Ships worldwide

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