Imagine an image in your mind.
You are traveling on a train, or you are at some waiting room, or you are queuing for coffee. There is someone sitting or standing next to you. You can say something to this person. It could be some comment regarding the weather, or any question regarding the book that this person has in his hands. About anything, really.
Guess two things, fast, without much deliberation.
The first is if you start a conversation with someone, how nice would that be for you, on a scale from one to ten? Second, if you were to converse with him and end the conversation, how much would he like you, on a scale from one to ten?
Keep these two numbers aside in your mind. People often assign a relatively conservative grade to the former and an even more conservative grade to the latter. The research highlighted in this post indicates that both the grades are often too low.
This blog post will not make you into a person who enjoys small talk. But there are going to be some days when you will want your peace, and it is perfectly okay. This post promises a little bit less than that. Two things that our minds get wrong about strangers, the reasons behind these mistakes, and how to test your own math on the next occasion.
The commute nobody wanted
Two researchers, Nicholas Epley and Juliana Schroeder, who are behavioral scientists from the University of Chicago, researched an activity that most people do everyday, which is often taken for granted: ignoring the person next to us.
Across nine experiments, they asked commuters on Chicago trains and buses to try one of three things. One group was asked to start a conversation with a stranger nearby. Some were asked to maintain a silence and remain alone. And the others did nothing out of the ordinary. After completing their ride, all of them described the experience.
The conversing individuals reported being the happiest about their commute experience.
This is the most fascinating part in my view. As the researchers asked other people commuting how they would react to the choice, they thought the exact opposite thing. They thought sitting all alone would have been a better choice. They also underestimated how much the stranger wanted to talk.
A silent morning train does not necessarily mean that everyone is looking for solitude. It might be the train packed with people who make the same guess about each other.
By the way, Epley and Schroeder paid attention to the other party of the conversation. Through a lab experiment, those who were approached by others had a similarly good experience as those doing the approaching. The person whom you fear will think badly of you for approaching them may actually be pleased that you did.
A smaller version, at the coffee counter
This does not require you to take a long train ride for the experience. Gillian Sandstrom and Elizabeth Dunn conducted an experiment in a coffee shop in which some participants were told to be as efficient as possible during the interaction with the barista; order and pay. Other participants were told to smile, make eye contact and have a short talk.
The customers who had the brief interaction came out of it feeling more positively compared to those that had an efficient interaction. It was also noted that there was preliminary information about why. The brief interaction allowed individuals to feel a sense of belonging, a sense of being connected to something, even momentarily, and even with a stranger with whom they were unfamiliar.
Now imagine all the possibilities that come with one single day. You have a chance to engage in a brief conversation with a cashier, your neighbor in an elevator, or a stranger holding the door open for you. In most cases, we pick efficiency since it is quicker and safer. The study seems to imply that we may be giving up some happiness for a few extra seconds.
The second guess
Here comes the second number, the one regarding being liked.
Let's say that you indeed start the conversation. Everything goes relatively well; you have a nice talk, say your goodbyes, and leave. What sticks to your memory afterwards?
For many people, it would be that one sentence that you said incorrectly. That joke which didn't quite get the point across. That silence that lasted a bit too long. That time when you weren't quite sure what to say next.
Erica Boothby, Gus Cooney, Gillian Sandstrom and Margaret Clark studied this very moment in five different experiments. They got people into conversations and then asked two questions: how much do you like your conversation partner?
This pattern kept repeating itself. Individuals tended to like their partner more than they thought their partner liked them. This is what they referred to as the liking gap. This gap was discovered among strangers who met each other in the lab, among college students becoming acquainted with their roommates, and also among people participating in a personal development seminar. It operated both for brief and extended interactions. In case of roommates, this effect persisted for months.
Their conclusion fits in a single line: after people have conversations, "they are liked more than they know."
Give yourself some time to think about that. The individual who was making you nervous might have left thinking highly of you, but you left thinking about your hesitation.
Consider the situation the other way round. Think of an individual whom you had recently met and whom you quite liked. Maybe your new colleague, friend of your friend, your new neighbor. Do you remember the time he/she hesitated, or the line which came out wrong?
Probably not. What you remember is whether it seemed easy to talk, whether he/she was listening to you and whether you smiled. That's pretty much what the other individual is remembering about you, as well.
Why the mind guesses low
What makes our predictions biased in the same direction?
The authors mention an unnoticed factor. When we converse with another person, a lot of our attention becomes internalized. Am I saying too much? Was that odd to say? What should I say next? In the meantime, we fail to notice what our interlocutor does, such as leaning in closer, laughing, or asking a follow-up question. In the researchers' report, outside observers saw those signals of interest easily. The people in the conversation often missed them.
We met a relative of this mistake in The Spotlight You Carry, where people overestimated how much others noticed their embarrassing moments. In this case too, the mistake runs along the same line. The small faults we have are assigned much importance in the minds of others, while their good signs get assigned little importance in our minds.
There might be some compassion in this. A low expectation shields us from the possibility of disappointment. By never having any hope of being liked, we can never be disappointed. However, even a guess made in order to protect ourselves remains just that, and may rob us of friendships which could have been gained.
But there is the positive aspect too. Your guess is not a fact about you. It is a prediction, and predictions can be tested.
An old observation
More than 2,300 years ago, Aristotle began his reflections on friendship with a sentence that still sounds plain and true: "without friends no one would choose to live, though he had all other goods."
In fact, he was talking about true friendship, one which develops over many years. But every friendship you've developed started with a conversation where two strangers talked to each other and at least one person needed to initiate the dialogue. Someone gambled on taking this small risk, guessing low, and still speaking up.
It doesn't require you to be a new person. It requires you to realize that all the assumptions you make about strangers, and the way they perceive you, are just assumptions. The pessimist in you may keep his opinion. All you need to do is test it.
What this cannot do
This is where honesty must be tempered. The studies have been conducted in very specific situations. There were commuters in one particular city, researcher organized conversations, a brief period spent at a coffee shop counter, or roommates in the first months of sharing an apartment. These observations reflect what normally occurs on average, but not what will occur in each conversation. There are bound to be some awkward moments in some conversations. Some will want their privacy, and that must be honored. Just use your common sense: select usual situations in public places and stop the conversation if you see the moment of finishing from the other side.
This does not guarantee that everyone will like you. What it means is smaller and, in practical application, possibly bigger. You will most likely have a less positive forecast than the world you are entering.
Before the next small conversation
Here then is something to do, just once, during this coming week. It makes two hypotheses stated at the beginning of this blog post a mini-experiment conducted by you personally.
First, pick out one brief conversation that you would normally avoid. It could be the cashier, a neighbor, another customer waiting near you. Keep it small.
Second, before speaking, you should write down your two estimates. How nice will this be, on a scale from one to ten? How much will this person like you afterwards, on a scale from one to ten? Mine usually reads: "Pleasant, four. Liked, three. Erdem, you will run out of things to say."
Third, ask one true question and listen to the answer. A real question is one where the answer is something you really want to know. And then just let the conversation take its natural course.
Fourth, when you are done, note down two cues from the other person: either a question they asked, a smile, or an extended period of speaking. Then list the numbers once more and compare them to your first estimates.
You may discover that your numbers were right this time. That is also important information. Usually, according to the research findings, you will find out that the gap existed in your forecast, not in the room.
When the next stranger finds himself sitting next to you, the silence will be there waiting for you to maintain it. You can preserve the silence. Or you can ask one question and see how wrong your guesses have been all along.